Gold Weekly Technical Outlook
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's up trend resumed last week by taking out prior high of 1388.1 and made new record high of 1398.7. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and further rally should be seen to 161.8% projection of 1084.8 to 1266.5 from 1155.6 at 1449.6 next. On the downside, below 1371.9 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 1315.8 is needed to signal topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.
In the bigger picture, rise from 1155.6 is treated as the fifth wave of the five wave sequence from 1044.5, which should also be fifth wave of the rally from 681 (2008 low). Such rally is still expected to continue towards 161.8% projection of 931.3 to 1227.5 from 1044.5 at 1449.6 before completion. Though, we're aware of long term projection target of 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 and we'd anticipate strong resistance from there to bring medium term correction finally. On the downside, however, break of 1315.8 support will be an early alert of medium term reversal and will turn focus back to 1155.6 support for confirmation.
In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253. The anticipated correction didn't happen and gold will now likely climb further to 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 before making a top.
Silver Weekly Technical Outlook
Comex Silver (SI)
Silver's up trend continued last week and jumped to as high as 26.91, breaking mentioned target of 161.8% projection of 14.65 to 19.845 from 17.735 at 26.14 with ease. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for further rally. Silver's rise should be in an acceleration phase and would target 200% projection at 28.125 next. On the downside, below 25.87 will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat first. But downside should be contained well above 22.84 support and bring rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, as noted before, silver's up trend is in an acceleration phase for the moment. Current rally from 8.4 is treated as resumption of the whole rise from 2001 low of 4.01. 100% projection at 25.84 is already met. And Silver would now be targeting next key projection level at 161.8% projection of 4.01 to 21.44 from 8.4 at 36.6 level. On the downside, break of 20 psychological level is needed to signal medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.
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